Following on from the September publication of the latest Tax Gap statistics, the latest VAT Gap estimates are now available. This publication constitutes the latest preliminary estimate of the VAT gap for 2013–14 based on full year consumer expenditure data, accounting for around two thirds of the VAT total theoretical liability (VTTL). The remaining one third of VTTL is a forecast based on the estimates for the UK economy produced by the Office for Budget Responsibility.

VAT gap estimates are incorporated annually into the total tax gap as part of the ‘Measuring Tax Gaps’ publication. An estimate of the VAT gap for 2013–14 will be incorporated into the total tax gap and published as part of the ‘Measuring Tax Gaps 2015’ publication.

The VAT gap for 2013–14 is estimated at around 10.3% of the estimated VTTL. This equates to £12.0 billion.